I do not think it is a coincidence that 2025 is the first year that "test-optional" college applicants are graduating and the same year the unemployment rate for new college grads is the highest it has ever been
Every white guy in any kind of corporate America or corporate America related gig has multiple anecdotes about this. Promotions that went to a woman or a person of color because there were “too many white guys in the room.” Coworkers who can’t seem to get fired no matter how little work they do and how little they show up because managers are spooked about getting sued. Jobs that only seem to exist so your company can say it has “vibrant diversity!”
I weep for the future. A group of white guys at NASA in the 1960’s put a man on the moon with technology infinitely less advanced than the phone I’m typing this on. Now our much more “diverse” and “current year,” NASA needs to rely on the private sector to get astronauts back from space. Such great progress!
Great article, well written. I didnt know just how insidious disparate impact was. I knew it was in hiring and college admissions but didnt realize how deep a root issue it is to our current societal malaise.
There is a systematic oppression of intelligence -- which is to say, of people with a literally exponentially higher likelihood of solving hard problems. (citations on Rasch measures omitted - see my second post) The correlation between income and IQ is less than 0.3 overall, and nearly 0.0 for intelligence in the top 10%. Those with top 1% intelligence are more likely to have financial hardship than average people.1
This is not because smart people aren't more productive, Schmidt & Oh's 2016 update to Hunter & Schmidt's classic paper (which was perhaps the first meta-analysis) found IQ validity for predicting job performance is 0.67, vs. e.g. 0.0 for experience, 0.2 for education, 0.3 for biography. (Table 1, p.71). IQ is in fact the best single predictor of job performance, but it is not rewarded in the market, costing at least $3T/yr. in lost productivity in the US alone.2
Mispriced brains are the biggest economic inefficiency I know of. Putting people with exceptional intellectual ability in control of investment and innovation is the optimal strategy for both profits and doing long-term good.
1. "Do you have to be smart to be rich? The impact of IQ on wealth, income and financial distress" by Jay L. Zagorsky (2007, using NLSY data. PDF link: https://gwern.net/doc/iq/ses/2007-zagorsky.pdf )
2. “The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 100 Years of Research Findings” Schmidt & Oh, Working Paper, October 2016 (PDF link: https://home.ubalt.edu/tmitch/645/session%204/Schmidt%20&%20Oh%20validity%20and%20util%20100%20yrs%20of%20research%20Wk%20PPR%202016.pdf ) The economic analysis depends on several factors, each of which has a range of plausible values, but I calculate the increase in net present value directly attributable to switching to hiring by IQ plus an integrity test to be between $100T and $200T. That’s $300k - to $600k per capita, or about triple that per household. Indirect effects such as from increased growth rates could be even greater.
Is it known if usage of H1B's was and is an attempt provide legal cover against disparate impact lawsuits? "See, we love hiring brown people!" That sort of thing.
Kinda. DEI and disparate impact intersect in outcomes, but are somewhat separate issues in practice.
It does appear that H-1bs are used to shield companies from DEI lawsuits about overall numbers of people. However, as disparate impact tends to apply more to tests, etc. for employment, and H-1bs don’t pass those either, it is not as connected
But h-1bs are certainly used to avoid diversity lawsuits
The one aspect that everyone is forgetting is the Covid bio weapon shots. The numbers of people in every demographic that took them is astounding. Watch over the next few years how many of them will die.
I do not think it is a coincidence that 2025 is the first year that "test-optional" college applicants are graduating and the same year the unemployment rate for new college grads is the highest it has ever been
Lol, didn’t think of that
It’s certianly a possibility
Slow clap. No notes.
Every white guy in any kind of corporate America or corporate America related gig has multiple anecdotes about this. Promotions that went to a woman or a person of color because there were “too many white guys in the room.” Coworkers who can’t seem to get fired no matter how little work they do and how little they show up because managers are spooked about getting sued. Jobs that only seem to exist so your company can say it has “vibrant diversity!”
I weep for the future. A group of white guys at NASA in the 1960’s put a man on the moon with technology infinitely less advanced than the phone I’m typing this on. Now our much more “diverse” and “current year,” NASA needs to rely on the private sector to get astronauts back from space. Such great progress!
Yeah it is very bleak, and utterly insane.
I hope and doubt we'll get to Mars, at least with the present regime. DEI/disparate impact makes it impossible to do anything of note
Thanks for exposing the Bush family penchant for globalism over meritorious western centered capitalism.
Absolutely. People need to know how awful HW Bush was
I got to say, I’m starting to wonder if we had any good presidents.
Washington was good
Great article, well written. I didnt know just how insidious disparate impact was. I knew it was in hiring and college admissions but didnt realize how deep a root issue it is to our current societal malaise.
Thank you! Yes it is a way larger issue than many people realize. Pretty much every aspect of life is harmed by it
From a post of mine:
There is a systematic oppression of intelligence -- which is to say, of people with a literally exponentially higher likelihood of solving hard problems. (citations on Rasch measures omitted - see my second post) The correlation between income and IQ is less than 0.3 overall, and nearly 0.0 for intelligence in the top 10%. Those with top 1% intelligence are more likely to have financial hardship than average people.1
This is not because smart people aren't more productive, Schmidt & Oh's 2016 update to Hunter & Schmidt's classic paper (which was perhaps the first meta-analysis) found IQ validity for predicting job performance is 0.67, vs. e.g. 0.0 for experience, 0.2 for education, 0.3 for biography. (Table 1, p.71). IQ is in fact the best single predictor of job performance, but it is not rewarded in the market, costing at least $3T/yr. in lost productivity in the US alone.2
Mispriced brains are the biggest economic inefficiency I know of. Putting people with exceptional intellectual ability in control of investment and innovation is the optimal strategy for both profits and doing long-term good.
1. "Do you have to be smart to be rich? The impact of IQ on wealth, income and financial distress" by Jay L. Zagorsky (2007, using NLSY data. PDF link: https://gwern.net/doc/iq/ses/2007-zagorsky.pdf )
2. “The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 100 Years of Research Findings” Schmidt & Oh, Working Paper, October 2016 (PDF link: https://home.ubalt.edu/tmitch/645/session%204/Schmidt%20&%20Oh%20validity%20and%20util%20100%20yrs%20of%20research%20Wk%20PPR%202016.pdf ) The economic analysis depends on several factors, each of which has a range of plausible values, but I calculate the increase in net present value directly attributable to switching to hiring by IQ plus an integrity test to be between $100T and $200T. That’s $300k - to $600k per capita, or about triple that per household. Indirect effects such as from increased growth rates could be even greater.
From: https://enonh.substack.com/p/nobody-wants-geniuses
Can’t wait to check out these papers when I have time, thank you for the thoughtful response
The point about system oppression of intelligence is very true
Will - this is another great article. Thank you. I would highly recommend that people listen to the podcast that we recorded last week.
https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/p/will-tanner-bureaucracy-and-post
Thank you! Absolutely
Disparate impact puts the burden of proof on the accused, which is un-American
Indeef
Is it known if usage of H1B's was and is an attempt provide legal cover against disparate impact lawsuits? "See, we love hiring brown people!" That sort of thing.
Kinda. DEI and disparate impact intersect in outcomes, but are somewhat separate issues in practice.
It does appear that H-1bs are used to shield companies from DEI lawsuits about overall numbers of people. However, as disparate impact tends to apply more to tests, etc. for employment, and H-1bs don’t pass those either, it is not as connected
But h-1bs are certainly used to avoid diversity lawsuits
https://poetpastor.substack.com/p/a-cage-of-laws?r=5gejob
The casualty of the woke wars…
all races are disposable employees due to AI
The one aspect that everyone is forgetting is the Covid bio weapon shots. The numbers of people in every demographic that took them is astounding. Watch over the next few years how many of them will die.