I do not think it is a coincidence that 2025 is the first year that "test-optional" college applicants are graduating and the same year the unemployment rate for new college grads is the highest it has ever been
Great article, well written. I didnt know just how insidious disparate impact was. I knew it was in hiring and college admissions but didnt realize how deep a root issue it is to our current societal malaise.
There is a systematic oppression of intelligence -- which is to say, of people with a literally exponentially higher likelihood of solving hard problems. (citations on Rasch measures omitted - see my second post) The correlation between income and IQ is less than 0.3 overall, and nearly 0.0 for intelligence in the top 10%. Those with top 1% intelligence are more likely to have financial hardship than average people.1
This is not because smart people aren't more productive, Schmidt & Oh's 2016 update to Hunter & Schmidt's classic paper (which was perhaps the first meta-analysis) found IQ validity for predicting job performance is 0.67, vs. e.g. 0.0 for experience, 0.2 for education, 0.3 for biography. (Table 1, p.71). IQ is in fact the best single predictor of job performance, but it is not rewarded in the market, costing at least $3T/yr. in lost productivity in the US alone.2
Mispriced brains are the biggest economic inefficiency I know of. Putting people with exceptional intellectual ability in control of investment and innovation is the optimal strategy for both profits and doing long-term good.
1. "Do you have to be smart to be rich? The impact of IQ on wealth, income and financial distress" by Jay L. Zagorsky (2007, using NLSY data. PDF link: https://gwern.net/doc/iq/ses/2007-zagorsky.pdf )
2. “The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 100 Years of Research Findings” Schmidt & Oh, Working Paper, October 2016 (PDF link: https://home.ubalt.edu/tmitch/645/session%204/Schmidt%20&%20Oh%20validity%20and%20util%20100%20yrs%20of%20research%20Wk%20PPR%202016.pdf ) The economic analysis depends on several factors, each of which has a range of plausible values, but I calculate the increase in net present value directly attributable to switching to hiring by IQ plus an integrity test to be between $100T and $200T. That’s $300k - to $600k per capita, or about triple that per household. Indirect effects such as from increased growth rates could be even greater.
Is it known if usage of H1B's was and is an attempt provide legal cover against disparate impact lawsuits? "See, we love hiring brown people!" That sort of thing.
Kinda. DEI and disparate impact intersect in outcomes, but are somewhat separate issues in practice.
It does appear that H-1bs are used to shield companies from DEI lawsuits about overall numbers of people. However, as disparate impact tends to apply more to tests, etc. for employment, and H-1bs don’t pass those either, it is not as connected
But h-1bs are certainly used to avoid diversity lawsuits
Most of us are more complicated than that- but it’s true, the Jewish activist class has up until now been highly progressive. It’s seems to me a mixed bag. This country has certainly mistreated its black citizens and I’m proud that there were Jews who sought to rectify this and exemplify compassion. I’m glad Jews in SA stood against apartheid. At the same time… clearly something has gone wrong. It’s as if the pendulum swung from cruelty to permissiveness and we gained as many problems as we discarded. Crime and corruption are non-negotiable. Order must be restored. And yet, I don’t think it’s an either-or. I think we can leave behind poll taxes and Jim Crow and redlining, and we can also leave employers alone. In short, we should let people be free. Free to use the water fountain they want, free to hire and fire the people they want.
The main issue with my fellow Jews is a disconnect from the wellsprings of Judaism. Cutoff from that stabilizing and generative source, we cling onto the latest trends. For a long while that trend has been progressive politics. I don’t think we can claim authorship over that movement. I think the Civil Rights movement would’ve happened without us. But there are always some small percentage of us who become standout members in such movements. As a different example, I hardly think Harvey Weinstein was the only producer doing such crimes but he seems to have been best-in-class.
My criticism of your comment and the post in general is that blaming whole groups will either make change impossible or at least inaccurately capture the problem. Just because minority groups are favored in our current regime doesn’t mean I blame those groups. I blame the society, meaning us, who enacted such faulty legislation. If a poor man is guilty but acquitted due to his poverty, I hardly think he is a bad actor- rather, there was a miscarriage of justice. Same deal for a guilty rich man acquitted due to his prestige.
Conservative jews fight so that jews can remain racially pure while progressive jews fight so that the goyim can become racially mixed. Heads we win, tails you lose.
Your comment lacks any Theory of Mind. In other words, you seem to think Jews are merely doing things *to* you. We, however, somehow remain some unchanging form in the void issuing decrees upon blighted man below, like some ancient deity.
In reality, the most damage we have inflicted is on ourselves. Progressive Jews will assimilate into broad liberal, mostly white America. Or just not have kids at all.
Picture this: I was raised secularly in two worlds, by my WASPy father and Jewy mother. I discover God and religion and marry and have three kids (so far, IYH). My kids are not only my parent’s only grandkids so far, they are my grandparents only great-grandkids. For both sides. This despite a combined three aunts and uncles.
These forces, I strongly believe, are much more unconscious than you appear to acknowledge. As always, it’s a pleasure talking.
Jews abandon their heritage, become unmoored and are attracted to radical forces. Stephen Miller is a good example of an unmoored Jew who participates in right-of-center radical politics.
Do you seriously think the handful of us who support these things are the driving forces behind them? In your counterfactual, what happens if America never became the home for a majority of Jews? Does Civil Rights not happen? Does the New Deal not happen? Does Reconstruction not happen? Does the Revolution not happen? Does Woke 1.0 not happen?
Civil Rights was an almost entirely Jewish movement, although it tried to present itself as a more broadly supported movement. Small example:
“I gradually let go of the post–Six-Day War euphoria of Israel and turned my attention to the cauldron of the civil rights movement in America. Its call for equality and a utopian society connected seamlessly to my kibbutznik’s idealism. Newton High School, I now learned, was a hotbed of activism. I was invited to join a group that worked on neighborhood desegregation—a totally novel concept. Tom, the key organizer, had a crew cut so I assumed he was an all-American boy. Just before Christmas, people in the group talked about their holiday plans. When I asked if he was excited about Christmas, he answered, “Of course not. I’m Jewish.” “You are Jewish?” I exclaimed in disbelief. “Of course,” he answered with a shrug. “Most of us in the group are. Except, thankfully, the two blacks we have. That makes us more kosher; you know what I mean …” I nodded a “yes,” while actually stunned that he used the word “kosher.””
— Growing Up Below Sea Level: A Kibbutz Childhood by Biale Rachel
The one aspect that everyone is forgetting is the Covid bio weapon shots. The numbers of people in every demographic that took them is astounding. Watch over the next few years how many of them will die.
I do not think it is a coincidence that 2025 is the first year that "test-optional" college applicants are graduating and the same year the unemployment rate for new college grads is the highest it has ever been
Lol, didn’t think of that
It’s certianly a possibility
Thanks for exposing the Bush family penchant for globalism over meritorious western centered capitalism.
Absolutely. People need to know how awful HW Bush was
I got to say, I’m starting to wonder if we had any good presidents.
Washington was good
Great article, well written. I didnt know just how insidious disparate impact was. I knew it was in hiring and college admissions but didnt realize how deep a root issue it is to our current societal malaise.
Thank you! Yes it is a way larger issue than many people realize. Pretty much every aspect of life is harmed by it
From a post of mine:
There is a systematic oppression of intelligence -- which is to say, of people with a literally exponentially higher likelihood of solving hard problems. (citations on Rasch measures omitted - see my second post) The correlation between income and IQ is less than 0.3 overall, and nearly 0.0 for intelligence in the top 10%. Those with top 1% intelligence are more likely to have financial hardship than average people.1
This is not because smart people aren't more productive, Schmidt & Oh's 2016 update to Hunter & Schmidt's classic paper (which was perhaps the first meta-analysis) found IQ validity for predicting job performance is 0.67, vs. e.g. 0.0 for experience, 0.2 for education, 0.3 for biography. (Table 1, p.71). IQ is in fact the best single predictor of job performance, but it is not rewarded in the market, costing at least $3T/yr. in lost productivity in the US alone.2
Mispriced brains are the biggest economic inefficiency I know of. Putting people with exceptional intellectual ability in control of investment and innovation is the optimal strategy for both profits and doing long-term good.
1. "Do you have to be smart to be rich? The impact of IQ on wealth, income and financial distress" by Jay L. Zagorsky (2007, using NLSY data. PDF link: https://gwern.net/doc/iq/ses/2007-zagorsky.pdf )
2. “The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 100 Years of Research Findings” Schmidt & Oh, Working Paper, October 2016 (PDF link: https://home.ubalt.edu/tmitch/645/session%204/Schmidt%20&%20Oh%20validity%20and%20util%20100%20yrs%20of%20research%20Wk%20PPR%202016.pdf ) The economic analysis depends on several factors, each of which has a range of plausible values, but I calculate the increase in net present value directly attributable to switching to hiring by IQ plus an integrity test to be between $100T and $200T. That’s $300k - to $600k per capita, or about triple that per household. Indirect effects such as from increased growth rates could be even greater.
From: https://enonh.substack.com/p/nobody-wants-geniuses
Can’t wait to check out these papers when I have time, thank you for the thoughtful response
The point about system oppression of intelligence is very true
Will - this is another great article. Thank you. I would highly recommend that people listen to the podcast that we recorded last week.
https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/p/will-tanner-bureaucracy-and-post
Thank you! Absolutely
Disparate impact puts the burden of proof on the accused, which is un-American
Indeef
Is it known if usage of H1B's was and is an attempt provide legal cover against disparate impact lawsuits? "See, we love hiring brown people!" That sort of thing.
Kinda. DEI and disparate impact intersect in outcomes, but are somewhat separate issues in practice.
It does appear that H-1bs are used to shield companies from DEI lawsuits about overall numbers of people. However, as disparate impact tends to apply more to tests, etc. for employment, and H-1bs don’t pass those either, it is not as connected
But h-1bs are certainly used to avoid diversity lawsuits
https://poetpastor.substack.com/p/a-cage-of-laws?r=5gejob
Jews agitated for Civil Rights Era legislation because they resent White civilization and have an urge to destroy it.
Most of us are more complicated than that- but it’s true, the Jewish activist class has up until now been highly progressive. It’s seems to me a mixed bag. This country has certainly mistreated its black citizens and I’m proud that there were Jews who sought to rectify this and exemplify compassion. I’m glad Jews in SA stood against apartheid. At the same time… clearly something has gone wrong. It’s as if the pendulum swung from cruelty to permissiveness and we gained as many problems as we discarded. Crime and corruption are non-negotiable. Order must be restored. And yet, I don’t think it’s an either-or. I think we can leave behind poll taxes and Jim Crow and redlining, and we can also leave employers alone. In short, we should let people be free. Free to use the water fountain they want, free to hire and fire the people they want.
The main issue with my fellow Jews is a disconnect from the wellsprings of Judaism. Cutoff from that stabilizing and generative source, we cling onto the latest trends. For a long while that trend has been progressive politics. I don’t think we can claim authorship over that movement. I think the Civil Rights movement would’ve happened without us. But there are always some small percentage of us who become standout members in such movements. As a different example, I hardly think Harvey Weinstein was the only producer doing such crimes but he seems to have been best-in-class.
My criticism of your comment and the post in general is that blaming whole groups will either make change impossible or at least inaccurately capture the problem. Just because minority groups are favored in our current regime doesn’t mean I blame those groups. I blame the society, meaning us, who enacted such faulty legislation. If a poor man is guilty but acquitted due to his poverty, I hardly think he is a bad actor- rather, there was a miscarriage of justice. Same deal for a guilty rich man acquitted due to his prestige.
Conservative jews fight so that jews can remain racially pure while progressive jews fight so that the goyim can become racially mixed. Heads we win, tails you lose.
Your comment lacks any Theory of Mind. In other words, you seem to think Jews are merely doing things *to* you. We, however, somehow remain some unchanging form in the void issuing decrees upon blighted man below, like some ancient deity.
In reality, the most damage we have inflicted is on ourselves. Progressive Jews will assimilate into broad liberal, mostly white America. Or just not have kids at all.
Picture this: I was raised secularly in two worlds, by my WASPy father and Jewy mother. I discover God and religion and marry and have three kids (so far, IYH). My kids are not only my parent’s only grandkids so far, they are my grandparents only great-grandkids. For both sides. This despite a combined three aunts and uncles.
These forces, I strongly believe, are much more unconscious than you appear to acknowledge. As always, it’s a pleasure talking.
Jews ruin society, Jews most affected.
Jews abandon their heritage, become unmoored and are attracted to radical forces. Stephen Miller is a good example of an unmoored Jew who participates in right-of-center radical politics.
Do you seriously think the handful of us who support these things are the driving forces behind them? In your counterfactual, what happens if America never became the home for a majority of Jews? Does Civil Rights not happen? Does the New Deal not happen? Does Reconstruction not happen? Does the Revolution not happen? Does Woke 1.0 not happen?
Civil Rights was an almost entirely Jewish movement, although it tried to present itself as a more broadly supported movement. Small example:
“I gradually let go of the post–Six-Day War euphoria of Israel and turned my attention to the cauldron of the civil rights movement in America. Its call for equality and a utopian society connected seamlessly to my kibbutznik’s idealism. Newton High School, I now learned, was a hotbed of activism. I was invited to join a group that worked on neighborhood desegregation—a totally novel concept. Tom, the key organizer, had a crew cut so I assumed he was an all-American boy. Just before Christmas, people in the group talked about their holiday plans. When I asked if he was excited about Christmas, he answered, “Of course not. I’m Jewish.” “You are Jewish?” I exclaimed in disbelief. “Of course,” he answered with a shrug. “Most of us in the group are. Except, thankfully, the two blacks we have. That makes us more kosher; you know what I mean …” I nodded a “yes,” while actually stunned that he used the word “kosher.””
— Growing Up Below Sea Level: A Kibbutz Childhood by Biale Rachel
When the last white person dies ,who going to pay for your welfare
The casualty of the woke wars…
The one aspect that everyone is forgetting is the Covid bio weapon shots. The numbers of people in every demographic that took them is astounding. Watch over the next few years how many of them will die.
Yeah it is very bleak, and utterly insane.
I hope and doubt we'll get to Mars, at least with the present regime. DEI/disparate impact makes it impossible to do anything of note